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Where is the market going from here?


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Topic: Where is the market going from here?

Hopefully, this will be an ongoing discussion with the subject relevant in perpetuity.

Today, the market fell nearly (another) 700 points and overall, we're back to 2003 prices. Every part of my being is screaming throw the farm at the market... or at least at stocks that will definitely be around over time... Google, Phillip Morris, Apple.

But my Financial Advisor thinks we might go lower... so does Cramer.

What do you think? Your opinion today will be dated and we'll know who the smart guy is as time goes by.

Let's hear your thoughts.

Google hits numbers...

So, Google GOOG hit their numbers... again... and is way up after market.

I feel like I have my nose pressed up to the glass.

That would make sense...

... .with MSFT 's cash position and Yahoo this much cheaper... maybe they can get it done now? Still love Google, EditorKD. Front Door of the Internet.

Does MOT compete effectively against Blackberry and iPhone?

I have phone envy. My fairly new MotoQ looks like a low-tech toy next to my son's new Blackberry Curve. I wonder if MOT can keep up in the glitzy world of phone technology?

Still Love AAPL...

.... but Steve Jobs health is a concern for me? Can AAPL withstand a departure?

YHOO Still in Play?

Shares of Yahoo jumped 12 % after Microsoft CEO reportedly said that a deal between the companies may still make economic sense for shareholders.

Thinking about buying Google...

Looking at Google again, thinking about setting up a buy in the low teens.

Any thoughts, users?

The securities markets are crooked

The oil speculators who would not know crude oil from "Oil of Olay" and do not own and cannot take delivery of crude oil and gasoline, have been allowed to increase the price of oil and gasoline based upon nonsense. The daily strike in Nigeria is always a safe bet to scare everyone. Somehow, Nigeria continues to sell oil. The next balderdash was China and India used more oil and gas. Of course, China and India did not use any oil 5-years ago. The lies continue. Now, the economic slowdown causes oil and gasoline prices to fall from $147 to $79 per barrel currently. The world must be coming to and end, and India and China obviously no longer use petroleum products, right?

People have suffered because the futures traders and the hedge fund crooks, neither of whom own and can take delivery of the commodity, have been allowed by the US Government legally to manipulate the oil and gasoline market. I repeat, these so-called investors did not own the commodity and could not take delivery of it; however, the US Government via the regulatory agencies and the blowhards in Congress allowed the harm of this fraud to be imposed upon the public.

Now the stock market has crashed due to fiscal malfeasance by financial and securities institutions along with realtors, all of whom promoted real estate fraud. Of course, with the world falling apart, all the business channel shills and the politicians blame the poor schlep who just wanted to buy a house as the reason for the current economic downfall.

The US Government indirectly through the two fraudulent government sponsored entities--"Fraudie Mae and Fraudie Mac"--bought mortgages for homes that were really worth 90% less than what they sold for all because these two crooked institutions gave a guarantee to buy almost any loans. Why would a developer sell a home for its real price of $45,000 when the two aforesaid agencies would buy the mortgage from a bank for an amount up to, for example, $300,000? Of course to afford a home creative financing had to happen. To avert its risk, Fraudie Mae and Fraudie Mac sold interests in the mortgages it purchased to investor suckers.

The Federal Reserve, the US Government, and the politicians allowed real estate fraud to continue for at least 30-years. This is not a Bush, Clinton, or Milliard Fillmore administration issue. The river of fraud flowed during many presidential administrations, both Democrat and Republican. The result, the US Government regulatory agencies allowed mortgages to be used as collateral for the biggest fraud, derivatives. Derivatives are AIR; they are bets that something may or may not happen, such as the date of the first snowfall on Mars. The collateral for these bets has been mortgages! The mortgage collateral has become almost worthless because of mortgage defaults due to homeowners' inability to pay the real mortgage payment when the creative financing interest rage converted to the real interest rate.

The stock market will take many years to recover. What people gained in 5-years has been lost in 3-weeks. There will be rallies known as "suckers' rallies" whereby the stock market will gain significantly for a day or for a few days. People must be wary, as the tide will not have turned. The "sucker's rallies should be times to get rid of stocks due to higher prices during these rallies. Safety of principal is most important now.

What is also fraudulent is that strong balance sheet companies like Microsoft never do anything. No matter that Microsoft mints money, the stock languishes. Part of the blame is that Microsoft management is incompetent at running the company despite the brilliance of the management people who created the company. Microsoft should be at least $40 per share. Recently, one of the major oil companies had record profits, but it was still not enough because some punk analyst thought that the oil company should have made one more penny. The stock dropped by at least $3 despite success!

The manipulation of share prices, corporate mismanagement, and the shills on the business channels make it virtually impossible to own securities with the sense that reality, not rumors, rule the markets. The regulators and the business channel shills, all of whom are in bed with each other along with rendering homage to such con-men as Buffet and Pickens, make market participation--with a sense that reality is the reason for gains or losses, not some gibberish--a game for suckers. The common person can no longer be a victim of the fraud. Better to place one's money in bank certificate of deposits or US Treasury obligation that offer safety than to lose one's money in the securities markets because they are manipulated by insiders and this manipulation is countenanced by government.

Finally, please be prudent and treasure your treasure! Wall Street and the commodities markets are legalized fraud, protected by government. The time for all of us has come to protect our assets. Whether you agree with me or not, I accept in advance your plaudits or your jeers. Please focus upon reality: do not waste time finding exceptions and excuses to participate in a rigged game--the markets-. There is no need to suffer financially because the markets are rigged.

Is this the Dot.Com Craze all over again?

What happened today reminds me how people felt during the .com surge in the market. New investors jumping into the market to pick a winner. The market will stay up but for how long?

OK... who talked me out of buying Google???

I was looking at it at $315 on Friday today it closed at $385. Siri way up too.

Storming back from the brink!

Wall Street stormed back after its worst week ever and staged the biggest single-day stock rally since the Great Depression, catapulting the Dow Jones industrials to a 936-point gain and finally offering relief from eight consecutive days of stock market carnage. This was likely in response to the EU stepping up to the plate with a$2.3 trillion cash infusion to protect the continent's banks - a figure that dwarfs the Bush administration's $700 billion rescue program, in its most unified response yet to the global financial crisis after a stumbling start.

The pledges by Britain and the six countries that use the euro helped soothe stock markets, along with a promise by top central banks to provide unlimited short term dollar credits.

The action by Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Austria and Britain came after weeks in which the governments often acted at cross purposes and sniped at each other -- a piecemeal approach that failed to stop steep and frightening slides on financial markets. The EU has pledged more than the United States, clearly taking the banking crisis seriously.

But I'd advise that you not get comfy yet - this ride isn't over (IMO). We will likely see some follow through on this rally to end all rallies - but the sellers will surely come! And when they do we may see an even bigger correction than we've seen in the past week or so. These big swings up and down usually set up a bigger move in the opposite direction. When the volatility begins to shake out and we experience smaller, less frequent moves then we can settle in for the long haul. No matter what, this broader cycle is very likely to be part of our lives for years to come.

Is this a real rally or a temporary bounce?

Is this the end of the slide? Or just a feel-good bounce from the world leaders meet and greet this weekend? My option trader pals expect the market to go lower yet. I figured we'd see some sideways trading (a good thing, I think) this week.

Your thoughts???

Sure wish I'd bought Google (GOOG) at $315 on Friday.

Strong replies..

I appreciate the comments I'm seeing. The remarks about Google and it's future give me pause in buying in though I would have pulled the trigger had it $305 or so Friday. AAPL definitely intrigues me but the long term is clouded by CEO Jobs health. Though I disagree that Jobs is the only thinker in the building as others often assert, I fear that popular opinion will be that the company is headless if Jobs steps down due to health concerns.

I would also strongly encourage those of you with strong opinions to expound on the subject via a blog. They are easy to use right on your FiSpace page.

We have the site set up to attract the Search Engines so write your piece and become a star. :)

We'll also use select content in press releases sent out under related ticker symbols. Anyone can be a columnist now, not just TheStreet.com and Motley Fool.

Any questions??

EditorKD

DJ-30 and AAPL

Looking back at the fall of 1929 and 1987 the TSV 18 was below the Wilders RSI 3,3 before a rally began. So Monday a gap down should occur, this will put the indicators where they need to be so the real bottom everyone is looking for can happen.
> If the market does not fall Monday, a short rally of three days will occur and then a fall to the real bottom .... if history is to repeat itself.

Margins are due Monday night for all the hedge funds that have over extendted themselfs so they will be forced to sell assets to cover these loses, thus driving the market lower.

AAPL will fall Monday to a new 4 year low making it a better buying oppertuity than on Friday. Good company, great products and a good buy. I got out Friday after a nice gain so I hope I can get back inon Monday.
Time will tell''''
RKB

Are you absoluly sure about a google play?

With their investment in the Sprint/Clearwire WiMax deal and with lot's of changes still happening in the web world, I do agree that their stock price is down because of the economy but I do not think that they will reach the same levels of their historical highs. I think that some of their investments such as the one in WiMax that I pointed out will pay off. There are a lot of companies that will go BK in this economic environment and will defintely affect Google's bottom line.

Worst is Over

There is no where for the market to go but up. The recent plan to support the strong and stable companies in the market is the key to getting credit flowing again. I don't think large companies are going to risk further deteriation of assets while the small companies start gaining market share. What I hear in the street is that now is the time to buy and I'm sure that sentimant will follow into the market next week. Look for the technology and financial stocks to lead the way.

Hanging in there

I still have a solid position in AAPL. Thinking long term.

Sold my SIRI today but...

I sold all my SIRI today. I'm embarassed to say I paid $5 a long, long time ago. But my intention is to go back in 31 days when I can lock in the tax loss. That way I can way, way, way average down with the stock around .39 cents.

Or I can buy postage stamps. :)

I still like the company's long term prospects and I don't think a dollar in the short term is unreasonable once all this mess is behind us.

Thinking about buying Google...

OK... here's my rationale.

The stock will be around forever. It's the front door of e-commerce, business 2.0., etc.

The stock is down because the market is down, not because there is anything inherently wrong with the company.

The company is a think tank, an incubator. They have a space program. Like Apple (AAPL) they are a good news factory.

The stock has a 52 week high at over twice today's price ($747). I like that investors will remember that.

I'm also thinking that Monday will see the return of Jewish investors celebrating Yom Kippur and staying out of the market the past few days.

And lastly, I'm thinking that when average investors come back to the market once it settles down they will do as I have, with leading brands with enduring business plans like Google.

What do you think?

I disagree...

Considering that we're only giving back the excesses of the market since 2003, I'm not so sure we're near a bottom. Our mortgage contagion has not been fully arrested and the rest of the world is still sorting it out. It's too chaotic to see real investors jumping back in yet and Joe SixPack is scared sh*tless right now. He may not come back for years.

We have to be near a bottom.

We have to be near a bottom. I'm going back in. Picking my spots like EditorKD and probably staying away from tech.

I might take a peek at Wal-Mart. Parking lot seems plenty full and recession belt-tightening will push people toward their dirty and discounted doors.

Anyone else think of another "recession play"?